Michael Mauboussin – Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing

What Got You There with Sean DeLaney | 19 July 2020 | 1h 12m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Michael Mauboussin discussing leadership in sport, his thinking and writing processes, books, behavioural biases, and the Santa Fe Institute. Draws in particular on ideas from his book The Success Equation, which is all about distinguishing skill from luck.

Maria Konnikova: Less Certainty, More Inquiry

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish | 4 August 2020 | 1h 37m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Maria Konnikova discussing how best to learn, her mentors, making decisions in environments of uncertainty, the importance of reflection, cooling down your emotions, and Sherlock Holmes. Draws on her books The Biggest Bluff and Mastermind.

Ozan Varol | How to Think Like a Rocket Scientist

The Jordan Harbinger Show | 14 April 2020 | 0h 50m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Ozan Varol about his book Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life. Discusses how to apply first-principles thinking in your life; how to reverse your own processes to find the holes in your logic; the benefits of bringing in outside expertise that has seemingly nothing to do with the problem you’re trying to solve; why brainstorming all the reasons your idea might fail may just ensure its long-term success; how to reframe questions and generate insights you may have missed; and more.

How to Make Your Own Luck

Freakonomics Radio | 2 July 2020 | 1h 00m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Maria Konnikova about her book The Biggest Bluff. Discusses insights on decisionmaking gleaned from learning to be a professional poker player. Includes excerpts read by Konnikova.

This is the prototype for a potential new podcast from Steven Dubner, which sets a new high standard for an author interview about their book. Email radio@freakonomics.com to offer encouragement.

Annie Duke on Poker, Probabilities, and How We Make Decisions

Conversations with Tyler | 1 July 2020 | 0h 54m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Annie Duke about ideas from her forthcoming book How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Discusses how poker is a perfect laboratory to study human decision-making. Covers how payoffs aren’t always monetary, the benefits and costs of probabilistic thinking, the “magical thinking” behind why people buy fire insurance but usually don’t get prenups, linguistics, how public policy would change if only the top 500 poker players voted, whether Trump has a tell, the power of open-mindedness, and more.

The Return of a Decision Making Jedi: My Discussion With Michael Mauboussin

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish | 24 January 2018 | 1h 16m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Michael Mauboussin about investment decisionmaking. Ground covered includes decision making, with concrete guidance on when and when not to deviate from base rates; intuition and when to use it; tests to evaluate the stability of a company’s environment; books; and parenting.

Gary Klein on Pre-Mortem Analysis

Capital Allocators | 23 September 2019 | 0h 49m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Gary Klein about tools to improve decision-making, including the Shadow Box technique, Cognitive After-Action Reviews, and Pre-Mortems. Dives deep on Pre-Mortem analysis, starting with its history in the Air Force, what it is, how it works, when it falls short, and the benefits of reducing overconfidence, time efficiency, increasing candor, and making groups smarter. Also critiques other risk mitigation techniques such as devil’s advocates, red teams, and risk assessment.