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Allen B. Downey – Probably Overthinking It

    New Books in Economics | 10 October 2025 | 1h 02m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
    Interview with Allen B. Downey about his book Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions. Argues that understanding data is crucial to avoiding statistical traps and making better decisions, noting how statistical lenses can distort reality. Covers concepts like the Gaussian curve and lognormal distributions, the Inspection Paradox (recidivism), Berkson’s paradox (medical studies), and Simpson’s Paradox (vaccine efficacy). Highlights the importance of correctly interpreting data, citing examples where errors, such as those in analysing the effects of maternal smoking or long-tail disaster probabilities, severely impact societal outcomes.

    Learning to Think Like Someone Else (with David Marquet)

      EconTalk | 11 August 2025 | 1h 03m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
      Interview with David Marquet about his book Distancing: How Great Leaders Reframe to Make Better Decisions. Explores how distancing – thinking like someone else, somewhere else, or sometime else – can unlock better choices in business and life. Discusses leadership without giving orders, how to empower teams, and what it means to see yourself as a coach rather than a boss, Jeff Bezos’s leap to start Amazon, Steve Jobs’ unique vision, and how a simple mindset shift can transform a struggling crew – or your career. Covers thinking clearly under pressure, avoiding regret, and becoming the kind of leader who creates other leaders instead of followers.

      Did Shutting Down Schools Help or Hurt? A Covid-19 Postmortem

      The Michael Shermer Show | 26 April 2025 | 0h 56m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
      Interview with David Zweig about his book An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions. Discusses the decision-making process behind the extended closures of American public schools during the pandemic, showing how some of the most trusted members of society – from Pulitzer Prize-winning journalists to eminent health officials – repeatedly made fundamental errors in their assessment and presentation of evidence.

      Nate Silver: On the Edge

        The Next Big Idea | 12 August 2024 | 0h 43m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
        The Next Big Idea | 15 August 2024 | 0h 43m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
        Interview with Nate Silver about his book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. Describes the broader community of analytically-minded, hyper-competitive, not-afraid-to-bet-the-house individuals that he calls “the River.” Argues that their mastery of risk allows them to shape – and dominate – much of modern life.

        Part 2 explains why most people should take bigger risks, reveals the big thing everyone misunderstands about Sam Bankman-Fried, and makes the case that there’s anywhere from a 2 to 20 percent chance that AI will take over the world.

        What Venture Capitalists Can Teach Companies About Decision-Making

          HBR Ideacast | 28 May 2024 | 0h 27m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
          Interview with Ilya Strebulaev about his book The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth, co-authored with Alex Dang, and their HBR article Make Decisions with a VC Mindset. Explains exactly how venture capitalists operationalize risk, embrace disagreement over consensus, and stay agile in their decision-making – all valuable lessons that apply outside of Silicon Valley.

          Victor Haghani & James White on The Missing Billionaires

            Bogleheads On Investing Podcast | 24 November 2023 | 0h 56m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
            Interview with Victor Haghani and James White about their book The Missing Billionaires, A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. Observes that few rich families from the early 1900s have retained their wealth despite exceptional returns in the markets. Discusses investment decision-making, risk-sizing, and how to make better financial decisions with your wealth.

            An Investor’s Guide to Clear Thinking w/ Chris Mayer

              We Study Billionaires | 11 August 2023 | 0h 50m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
              Interview with Chris Mayer about his book How Do You Know? A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing, and Life. Discussing decision-making in the context of investing, covering general semantics, muddy terminology, Sosnoff’s Law, drivers of long-term shareholder returns, accounting, book recommendations, and more.

              Shane Parrish on Clear Thinking

                The Tim Ferriss Show | 27 September 2023 | 1h 58m | Listen Later | Podcasts | Spotify
                Interview with Shane Parrish about his book Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results. Discusses positioning to be advantaged whatever the outcome, not dictated by circumstances to do things you don’t want to; the value of challenge in education; using mental models to avoid bad decisions due to blind spots; separating problem-solving from problem definition; automatic rules to make desired behaviours default behaviours; focussing on outcome over ego; and writing to think.