Predicting the Future Is Possible

The Ezra Klein Show | 3 December 2021 | 0h 52m | Listen Later | iTunes | Spotify
Interview with Philip Tetlock about ideas from his books Expert Political Judgement and Superforecasting:The Art and Science of Prediction. Discusses the intellectual virtues, habits of mind, and ways of thinking that we can learn to become better forecasters; the inverse correlation between fame and forecast accuracy; the rigour-relevance gap; how to approach real-life questions; and why government bureaucracies often resist adopting the tools of superforecasting.

Julia Galef – The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t

The Michael Shermer Show | 21 August 2021 | 1h 46m | Listen Later | iTunes | Spotify
Interview with Julia Galef about her book The Scout Mindset. Discusses how to think more rationally; her scout mindset metaphor; how the empirical claims of things like climate science and vaccines compare with religious, political, or ideological beliefs; implicit racism; and the value of being able to describe your opponent’s view to their satisfaction.

Julia Galef on Spock and Rationality

Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy | 16 April 2021 | 1h 00m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Julia Galef about her book The Scout Mindset. Discusses rational thinking; how to distinguish epistemic confidence from social confidence; the status quo bias; the outsider test; and her analysis of Star Trek episodes that show that Spock was no paragon of rationality – with a poor prediction track record and an abject failure to update his approach.

The Scout Mindset with Julia Galef

Venture Stories | 4 April 2021 | 0h 55m | Listen Later | iTunes
Interview with Julia Galef about her book The Scout Mindset. Discusses why everyone, including entrepreneurs, should want to see reality more clearly; the fact that the bottleneck to more rationality is not lack of knowledge, but lack of motivation to see the world as it really is; why the “soldier mindset” is the default mindset and why signalling keeps it that way; why thinking probabilistically has a calming psychological effect; how to adopt the scout mindset by thinking in bets, considering what you’d do if another person was in your shoes, and noticing where you’re defensive of your beliefs; how to get your organization to adopt a scout mindset; her thoughts on changing minds with mistake theory versus conflict theory; and the evolution of the rationality space over time.

Alison Gopnik on Parenting and the Downsides of Modernity

Rationally Speaking | 30 April 2018 | 1h 03m | Listen Later  | iTunes
Developmental psychologist Alison Gopnik explains why modern parenting is too goal-oriented. Discusses whether anything parents do matters, whether kids should go to school, and how kids learn discipline if you don’t force them to do things.

Julia Galef – Soldiers and Scouts

Long Now: Seminars About Long-term Thinking | 12 September 2018 | 1h 32m | Listen Later  | iTunes
Long Now presentation by Julia Galef setting out why our minds weren’t built for truth and how we can change that. Our capacity for reason evolved to serve two very different purposes that are often at odds with each other. Reason helps us figure out what’s true; but it also helps us defend ideas that are false-but-strategically-useful. Explores these two different modes of thought and what determines which mode we default to.